This week, the IEA published its ASEAN Energy Security Review in which it sets out what it thinks Southeast Asia needs to do to secure its energy supply.

A few of highlights:

While the IEA’s recommendations aren’t policy, they will enter directly into the regional policy conversation. The review was developed with the ASEAN Centre for Energy, the ASEAN Secretariat and ASEAN member states, and the IEA presents its findings to ASEAN Energy Ministers today (October 7).

As for copper, the relevant part is the IEA’s framing. A growing share of ASEAN’s energy security is meant to come from accelerated electrification, domestic generation and stronger, interconnected grids (while the region’s own copper mine output is projected to fall by around 25% by 2035).

For most of Southeast Asia, energy security has depended on securing flows of fuel. Regional oil production has fallen sharply from its peak while crude imports have risen, and growing LNG imports add exposure to international prices, shipping routes and supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz shock earlier this year showed what that dependence looks like in practice.

The IEA still calls for oil stocks, diversified suppliers, LNG infrastructure and emergency planning. However, a growing part of its prescription is to electrify more of the economy, use more domestic generation, strengthen networks, and connect them across borders.

As such, part of the security question shifts from securing the next fuel shipment to whether the electrical system can reliably deliver the energy the region needs.

MORE ELECTRICITY, FIRST

The starting point isn't particularly complicated: according to the IEA, ASEAN needs a much larger electricity system.

Electricity already accounts for ~23% of final energy consumption, with demand growing ~6% a year since 2015. The IEA expects another 5.4% annual growth between 2026 and 2030, driven by industry, cooling, data centres, along with broader electrification.

That's roughly 30% more electricity demand in five years.

And importantly, the IEA’s recommendations aren’t a simple story about ditching fossil-fuels for renewables. While wind and solar grow faster under the IEA scenario, coal and gas generation still continue rising through 2030.

As such, the broader demand sits at a fundamental level and isn’t tied to any particular narrative: a larger electrical system requires more generation connections, substations, transformers, switchgear, distribution equipment, motors, wiring and other electrical infrastructure regardless of precisely which technology supplies the electrons.

THE GRID IS ALREADY BEHIND

According to the IEA, transmission and distribution development has failed to keep pace with demand and renewable deployment in several countries, contributing to congestion and curtailment. Ageing and radial networks add vulnerability, and around one-fifth of the region’s grids are exposed to tropical-cyclone risk.

The rise from $13bn to $30bn a year is therefore partly catch-up and partly resilience. A secure network needs alternative power-flow paths, more flexible resources, and infrastructure that can absorb failures without them escalating into larger outages.

THEN THERE’S THE ASEAN POWER GRID

The proposed ASEAN Power Grid (APG) would let national systems that, more often than not, operate largely as islands share generation, reserves and flexibility. Hydropower in one country can serve demand in another, spare capacity can cross borders during a disruption, variable renewables can be balanced over a wider area, and countries can lean more on regional energy and less on imported fuel.

The proposed interconnections require ~$27bn over 2025-40, and that figure understates the build. Cross-border lines only work if the domestic networks at each end can accept and move the power, so the APG spend sits on top of the national grid requirement.

THE COPPER CAVEAT

More grid spending does not necessarily mean proportionally more copper. Long-distance overhead transmission is already largely aluminium, and utilities substitute away from copper wherever it’s technically and economically practical. The $30bn measures the scale of the electrical-infrastructure requirement and can’t be converted directly into tonnes.

However, substitution becomes harder or less attractive in many parts of the electrical system. Copper remains heavily exposed to distribution, motors, building and industrial wiring, transformers, substations and other electrical equipment. Roughly speaking, the copper story is as much about the equipment and lower-voltage networks around the big transmission lines as the kilometres of line themselves.

Further, some IEA recommendations reduce the build. Demand response, smart meters, better dispatch, dynamic pricing, and flexible industrial loads can cut peaks and ease congestion. In Thailand, separate IEA modelling finds demand flexibility could lower peak demand by up to 13% by 2030 and free up to 15% of transmission capacity on many network corridors, deferring or avoiding some network investment.

However, while better utilisation, efficiency and substitution all lower the metal intensity of headline grid estimates, they don’t reverse the broad trend. Indeed, the IEA is calling for better use of existing infrastructure and more than doubling annual grid and storage investment at the same time.

October 7: The presentation to ASEAN Energy Ministers. Watch whether ministerial statements pick up the IEA’s grid-investment and APG framing, or whether the focus stays on oil stocks and LNG.

2026-2030: Grid investment against demand. With demand set to rise ~30%, watch whether annual grid and storage spending moves meaningfully off the ~$13bn base, and whether congestion and curtailment ease or spread. Track demand-flexibility rollouts too: the faster they scale, the less network needs building in the near term.

2030-2040: Whether annual investment reaches $30bn by 2035 and APG interconnectors secure financing, and how those projects absorb copper costs as regional mine output declines.

/ Cobre Panamá inches closer to a possible restart

A Panamanian government commission recommended negotiations with First Quantum over a new operating framework for Cobre Panamá. The mine produced roughly 331kt of copper in 2023, so a full restart would be meaningful, although current stockpile processing is only expected to produce 30–40kt this year while fresh mining remains suspended.

/ China's copper smelters finally hit the brakes

China's refined copper output is forecast to grow just 3–3.4% this year, its slowest pace since at least 2000, as concentrate and scrap availability constrain smelters. Planned maintenance in October and November could remove roughly another 80kt of refined production.

/ Argentina's Agua Rica gets a $4bn push

Glencore's $4bn Agua Rica project has been approved under Argentina's RIGI investment regime, giving the project access to long-term tax, customs and regulatory benefits. While it still remains a development project, approval adds another step toward turning Argentina's undeveloped copper resource base into production.

/ The energy transition is starting to recycle itself

The first generation of clean-energy infrastructure is beginning to become a source of raw materials for the next one, with utilities recovering copper and aluminium from retired grid equipment alongside growing battery and solar recycling.

That's the wire for today.  Until next time, build it before you need it.

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